elections have been widely acclaimed as peaceful and historic, but many remain worried about the prospects for a smooth transfer of power to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s government over the next four months.
Thousands have been triumphantly celebrating the landslide victory of the National League for Democracy after the November 8 vote, many wearing the party’s red shirts and waving flags bearing its golden peacock emblem.
Vote counting is expected to go into next week. As of 9pm yesterday, the NLD had so far won 217 of the 330 elected seats in the lower house of parliament, with the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party taking 28 seats, and another 28 going to diverse ethnic parties.
“We believe the NLD will have a landslide win, but we won’t be happy 100 percent until the next government is formed,” said U Than Maung, an NLD supporter from Mingalar Taung Nyunt township.
Despite assurances from President U Thein Sein and the Tatmadaw that the results will be respected, people still fear a repeat of the 1990 elections when the military junta refused to recognise a similar NLD landslide and filled the prisons with its leaders and supporters. Politicians and analysts may be less worried about a rejection of the results, but they are concerned about provocations that could create instability during the transition period up to March 2016.
“I don’t think it could happen again,” comments U Aye Thar Aung, a key member of the Arakan National Party, referring to the events of 1990 that were followed by 20 more years of direct military rule.
His sense of optimism is based on the constitutional safeguards put in place by the military to protect its political power and interests beyond the reach of the executive. “There was no constitution in 1990, but now the 2008 constitution sets out the process of transferring power,” he said.
This bulwark of defences includes the 25 percent of parliamentary seats reserved for the military, its control over the powerful National Defence and Security Council, as well as three key ministries and the core of the civil service.
“For stability in the transitional period, I think it mainly depends on how the NLD and military can compromise and to what extent they can cooperate,” U Aye Thar Aung said.
Significantly, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the commander-in-chief, pledged in a speech to officers on November 11 that the military would cooperate with what he called “the new government” in the post-election period.
Political commentator U Sithu Aung Myint remains sceptical about the pledges by the government and military. He warns people not to put too much trust in their words.
“Promises are just promises,” he said. “Former generals gave promises, but they never kept them and always broke them. For example, former general Saw Maung said the military would go back to barracks, but they never went,” he added.
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s faith that Myanmar will not go through a re-run of 1990 is based on the role played by the international community which is keeping a close eye on events. But she does appear concerned about a peaceful transfer of power from now until February 2016 when the new parliament convenes to elect a president and two vice presidents.
In a speech the day after the nation voted, she urged people to be careful and patient. “I think you all already understand that we have to be cautious,” she said.
On November 10 she wrote separate letters to the president, the Tatmadaw commander and parliamentary Speaker Thura U Shwe Mann requesting talks by the end of next week on the basis of “national reconciliation”. They accepted the next day.
The agenda has not been disclosed. Commentator U Yan Myo Thein says that if Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is serious about national reconciliation then she should reflect this in the composition of her government by naming some ministers from outside her own party.
Analysts say the outcome of the four-way meeting will be key to maintaining stability through the transition period and beyond. However they worry whether Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the military will work together well or not. Part of the NLD manifesto pledges to work toward bringing the military under executive control, although it sets no timeframe.
“Her thinking is very important in this crucial period. She must negotiate with key power players to get what she wants. The most important is that what she tries to claim should be acceptable to the others. If not then probably something would happen during the transitional period,” commented U Sithu Aung Myint.
Although the NLD leader speaks of “national reconciliation”, U Sithu Aung Myint says he sees little evidence she can build trust with the military, noting her frequent criticism of the military’s unelected bloc in parliament, which can veto constitutional change.
“Blaming the military does not work toward national reconciliation. In this meeting she should not raise constitutional matters that would reduce the military’s hold on legislative power,” he added.
He said the military and government were bound to be antagonised by the NLD leader’s remarks to the media about being “above the president” and how the “president will get instructions from me”.
“It’s too early to give such comments. She should first consider the smooth transfer of power. She should move step by step,” he said.
The 2008 constitution bars the 70-year-old politician from the presidency because her sons are foreign nationals. She has said her nomination will come from the ranks of the NLD but has not disclosed a name.
U Aye Thar Aung, who is also a member of the ethnic United Nationalities Alliance, said events are unfolding well. “But nobody knows what will happen over the next three months,” he added.
“I hope both sides can produce good results for the country through this meeting.”
From:Myanmar Times